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UPDATE: just posted an updated chart here: https://twitter.com/topdowncharts/status/1435856189393301507

China PMI has moved into contraction mode now, rest of the world is still going strong in terms of levels but has rolled over. For a while there reopening + rebound + stimulus mean rest of world could sail along... From here I would say probably one of the biggest risks would be that rest of world slows down e.g. removes stimulus prematurely and/or sees reopening delayed/complicated by delta. Meanwhile China continues to hold steady on policy. The flipside, or bull case would be if China decides to drop the policy forbearance stance and go into easing mode - this would serve to extend and shore-up the global economic recovery

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