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Chart of the Week and Weekly Report Highlights
This week: EM vs DM, Chinese property prices, US Credit Spreads, Gold price outlook, Gold & USD, Gold Miners, Silver speculation...
This email provides a look at what we covered in the latest Weekly Insights report
The weekly insights report presents some of the key findings from our institutional research service, providing an entrée experience (in terms of price and size).
Chart of the Week - US Dollar Breakout
Breakout or Fakeout? -- USD: The DXY has made an initial breakout back above the 95 level. However, the resistance line in question saw several failed break DOWN attempts over the past few years - back when that same line was acting as support.
In other words, I would caution against getting necessarily too excited about this initial breakout. Meanwhile some of the medium/longer-term indicators I keep tabs on have not shifted or been negated by the current move.
So much like the move in gold (which we talk about in the latest report), I would be treating this initial breakout with some skepticism.
EDIT: 3 Feb 2022 — as noted on Twitter, the DXY has been chopping around support, with volatility in price and breadth reflecting an element of indecision. Weight of momentum seems to be upwards, but with competing forces in the background.
Key Point: Previous false breakdowns suggest skepticism for the current breakout
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Topics covered in the latest Weekly Insights Report:
Credit Spreads: As risks rise we look to a number of reliable indicators.
Gold Outlook: Upgrading to a neutral outlook given tactical indicators.
Gold & USD: We look at whether or not the two can both rally further.
Gold Miners: Why we remain bullish given the weight of indicators.
Silver: We talk through why it looks good, but with due skepticism.
Emerging Markets: EM vs DM relative performance reaching fresh lows.
Chinese Property: Key chart documenting materially weaker prices.
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Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.