Chart of the Week and Weekly Report Highlights
This week: Global Policy Watch, Capex Outlook, Mega Theme Update, US Dollar, Global vs US Equities, Macro Sentiment, Frontier Market Equities...
This email provides a look at what we covered in the latest Weekly Insights report
The weekly insights report presents some of the key findings from our institutional research service, providing an entrée experience (in terms of price and size).
Chart of the Week - Global vs US Equity Earnings
Global vs US Corporate Earnings: On the topic of US vs global equities, a key reason for the extended trend of US beating global equities has been the long-term cycles in relative strength of *earnings*.
The chart below shows that US earnings have outgrown global peers substantially over the past decade. Interestingly enough it follows a previous decade of global earnings outgrowing US earnings.
Basically this lens presents a glimpse of the fundamental trends underpinning the price trends that have been fairly extensively documented.
Thus one takeaway is that this long-term cycle in fundamentals will need to turn in order to reinforce any turn in price. But also of significance is value: I would argue that the superior profitability and earnings growth of US companies is already in the price - and then some. So there is some nuance to this puzzle…
Key point: US corporate earnings have outgrown global peers over the past decade.
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Topics covered in the latest Weekly Insights Report:
Global Policy Watch: Policy pivot going from “interesting“ to *important*
Capex Theory: Possible multi-year investment boom on the cards.
Mega Theme Update: It’s been a mixed bag for this mixed basket...
US Dollar: Why we are sticking to our guns on the medium-term view.
Global vs US Equities: Looking at the whys and wherefores in this big trend.
Macro Sentiment: Macro sentiment has undergone a substantial reset.
Frontier Market Equities: Important update on FM equity technicals.
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Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts
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