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Chart of the Week and Weekly Report Highlights
This week: Global Growth Grumblings, Commodities & Inflation Outlook, Credit (spreads) Check, Cash Allocations, Cyclicals vs Defensives, Consumer Confidence...
This email gives you a look at what was in the latest Weekly Insights report
The Weekly Insights Report is part of our entry-level service: summarizing the key ideas and charts from our institutional research service.
Chart of the Week - Crisis of Confidence
Global Economic Confidence Trends: Consumer confidence has collapsed all around the world this year, nearly matching the pace and magnitude of the drops seen during the global financial crisis and pandemic panic.
We have never seen consumer confidence collapse to this degree without taking business confidence down with it (and a subsequent downturn/crisis taking hold).
Indeed, pattern-recognizers might notice that consumer confidence was the first to collapse in 2008, only to be followed by business confidence shortly after.
Of particular intrigue is that the gap between Consumer confidence vs Business confidence reached a record level in July — eclipsing the previous record set in June 2008. The concern is that business confidence now “catches down”.
While these are all “just surveys”, the message is clear and consistent: people are saying that things are bad. This is actually in line with what the leading indicators are pointing to in terms of the global growth outlook, and frankly in line with the economic logic and intuition of how these things normally play out.
An unusual cycle, yes, but with many familiarities…
Key point: Consumer confidence has collapsed.
p.s. Check out the latest Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm
Our founder and Head of Research, Callum Thomas, puts out a weekly round-up of hand-picked charts from Twitter and across the web on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective. Check it out now
Topics covered in the latest Weekly Insights Report
Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and took a bite out of some really important macro/asset allocation issues right now:
Global Growth Grumblings: update on the global growth pulse.
Commodities & Inflation: a look at the balance of risks for the outlook.
Credit Check: updating multiple indicators to help navigate credit markets.
Cash Allocations: asset allocations to cash are on the way up.
Cyclicals vs Defensives: rebound underway, critical part of the market.
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