Chart of the Week and Weekly Report Highlights
This week: Equity Risk check, Bond outlook review, Pique Inflation, Commodities pivot, Agri Commodities, USD & EMFX, Deleveraging, Global REITs, EM iniquities
This email provides a look at what we covered in the latest Weekly Insights report
The Weekly Insights Report is part of our entry-level service: presenting some of the key findings from our institutional research service.
Chart of the Week - Global Equity Market Regime Change
Bubble-Bursting Bear-Market: The major drivers of strength in global equities since the market bottom in 2009 (and ensuing decade-long bull market) namely: momentum/growth/cyclicals have taken a clear and decisive turn for the worst since peaking in early 2021.
Just as this group was a key driver of strength during the bull market phase, they are now a key driver of weakness during this apparent bear market phase.
Aside from the interesting parallels to the dot com bubble peak and subsequent burst (which also shared similarities with regards to stretched valuations and excess speculation), the main point or driver this time is the decade of monetary stimulus — and in particular the final phase: aka the pandemic stimulus tsunami.
Now that monetary stimulus is being withdrawn globally, the speculative tides are going out, and this chart is perhaps one of the most exquisite representations of the current equity market regime.
Key point: The bubble in growth/momentum/cyclicals is bursting.
If you haven’t already, be sure to subscribe to our paid service so that you can receive the full reports ongoing (along with access to the archives, monthly asset allocation review, and Q&A).
ALSO: please feel welcome to share the Chart of the Week! I would greatly appreciate it if you can help spread the word :-)
Topics covered in the latest Weekly Insights Report:
Equity Risk: review of the risk outlook for equities.
Bond Risk: weighing the upside vs downside risks in bonds.
Pique/Peak Inflation: weight of risks shifting towards the downside.
Commodities: major change in view as risk/reward outlook shifts.
Agri-Commodities: strong rally showing signs of fading, risk shifting.
EM Iniquities: key chart on EM equities, shows where risks lie.
Deleveraging: we are starting to see some movement on deleveraging.
REITs: broad-based weakness emerging in global REITs; look at why.
Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes, as well as gaining access to the full archive of reports.
Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.