Chart of the Week and Weekly Report Highlights

This week: EM Risk, OECD Leading Indicators, Global Equity Risk, Global Shipping, China Property and Industrial metals, Carbon...

This email provides a look at what we covered in the latest Weekly Insights report

The weekly insights report presents some of the key findings from our institutional research service, providing an entrée experience (in terms of price and size).

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Chart of the Week - 2022 Growth Scare?

Turning points for OECD Indicators:  The latest run of the OECD composite leading indicators showed a weaker picture on the breadth front, which we find provides a lead on the leading indicators!

The diffusion index in the chart below tracks the monthly change across the 36 countries the OECD calculates leading indicators for. As the chart below shows this index has fallen below 50% from above 90% earlier in the year - implying a possible slowdown given it appears to lead the global index by about 8 months.

Meanwhile, the global (OECD + 6 non-member economies) indicator has started to roll over. Collectively suggesting that the reopening + stimulus-driven global economic rebound may be losing steam headed into 2022.

Key point:  OECD leading indicators suggest the economic rebound is losing steam.

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Topics covered in the latest Weekly Insights Report:

• OECD Leading Indicators: Uncertain growth prospects for 2022

• Global Equity Risk: Time to start paying closer attention to risk

• Global Shipping: Global shipping rates look to be peaking

• China Property: Our view on the outlook an implications for metals

• Carbon: Interest in carbon trading is surging along with prices

• EM Risk: A review of the Risk Watch on EM Equities

• Risk Pricing Trends: What the cross-asset volatility composite doing

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Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

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