Chart of the Week and Weekly Report Highlights
This week: equity positioning, gold and real yields, consumer confidence crunch, agri prices, gold vs commodities, gold miners vs energy, defensive value stocks
This email provides a look at what we covered in the latest Weekly Insights report
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Chart of the Week - Gold Miners vs Energy Producers
Gold Miners Left Behind: This curious chart shows the total assets under management in US equity sector ETFs focused on energy (i.e. traditional energy: oil/gas/coal) and gold miners. AUM in energy ETFs has gone up more than 5x since the low point: part of this is clearly price-driven as surging energy prices have triggered better stock price performance and improved financial results. But clearly investors have also had a change of heart on the sector after shunning it for some time (particularly with the rise of ESG investing).
The standout though in this chart is the one that isn’t standing out: gold mining ETF AUM has by contrast been very sleepy. To be fair, precious metal prices have been a big fat range trade for most of the past 2 years, and at the end of the day when it comes to these commodity equity sectors, commodity prices matter.
With gold itself on the cusp of a breakout, this chart begins to look very interesting, and we could easily see a stampede into gold miners if gold itself can manage to break through to new highs. Indeed, with the bull market in equities seemingly in its final throes this could end up appealing to the hoard of retail speculators still searching for their golden ticket…
Key point: Gold miners have been left behind.
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Topics covered in the latest Weekly Insights Report:
Gold vs Real Yields: gold glittering while real yields rising.
Leveraged Equity Bets: some things changed, others stay the same.
Global Consumer Confidence: big shift in March, unfriendly macro backdrop.
Agri Commodities: the perfect storm for this market (and beyond).
Gold vs Other Commodities: a very surprising AND interesting chart.
Value in Defensive Value: check on valuations after a big move in price.
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Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.
Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts
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